Underwriting Co·Pilot
Verdict · Northgate Apartments
The defensible go/no-go with the math visible — plus the LP-ready investment summary
Score 82 · strong on returns, capped by 2 open criticals · received 2d ago
- Strong rent upside — in-place rents ~25% below market
- IRR 18.2% / EM 1.9x clears the 15% fund hurdle
- Price/unit $316K sits inside the Bay-MF range
- DSCR below 1.20x — Model a +100bps rate shock
- Going-in cap below market — Counter at $55.8M → 5.2% cap
Investment Summary
Northgate Apartments
1840 Northgate Blvd, San Jose CA · 184 units · 1986 · value-add B/C multifamily
Northgate is a 184-unit infill value-add play in San Jose with ~25% in-place-to-market rent loss to capture over a 3-year hold. The 18.2% projected levered IRR clears our 15% hurdle, but the deal carries thin debt coverage (1.18x DSCR on a floating bridge) and a going-in cap below the Bay-MF range — a re-trade on price or debt structure converts this from Look-closer to a clean Pursue.
Rent comps · Bay MF
4984 Senter Rd, San Jose
93u · 1.1mi
$468K/u
5.1% cap
1182 Bascom Ave, Fremont
138u · 4.3mi
$433K/u
4.7% cap
3277 Zanker Rd, San Jose
67u · 0.6mi
$433K/u
4.8% cap
2786 Blossom Hill Rd, Mountain View
116u · 3.8mi
$388K/u
4.8% cap
Risk callouts
⚑ DSCR below 1.20x
Model a +100bps rate shock
⚑ Going-in cap below market
Counter at $55.8M → 5.2% cap